…Calmly observing the changing world

Despite the thoroughly German ECB being disinterested in bailing out Greece, and the German people overwhelmingly opposed to the same, the German government itself is vowing to help in smaller ways (like buying up newly issued Greek debt so interest rates on Greek bonds don’t spiral out of control).  Not all German officials feel the [...]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is known for many things, but mostly he is known for pointing out just how stupid it is to try to predict the future.  The future is full of so many unknowns at every level that predictions are just bound to be worthless.
And if your prediction happens to come true anyway, Taleb will [...]

In a surprise move today, the Federal Reserve raised the somewhat low-profile discount rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Supposedly, they are backing away from “emergency” operations and things are slowly getting back to “normal”.
In the great scheme of things, this doesn’t sound like much, but rate cycles are long term events and while we shouldn’t [...]

As surely as the dollar seems doomed to decline in status, one might assume that the Euro would be preparing to take its place. And while some in Europe would love for this to happen, the problem with the Euro is simply that it’s impossible to set a European-wide policy that works for the various [...]

Senior precious metals analyst John Nadler has recently and repeatedly said that gold is not in a bull market:
We will repeat that which should be obvious, in case you have doubts about where this writer stands: Gold is NOT in a bull market. The dollar is in a bear market.
Kitco
No word on why he thinks [...]

Earlier this year, Ireland lost its AAA credit rating, but now the assessment is much bleaker. Yesterday, Fitch cut Ireland’s credit rating by two “levels” to AA-. This puts the country on par with the Italians, and more likely to default than Slovenia or Abu Dhabi.
Ireland’s woes are now familiar. Dependent on banking and addicted [...]

Dakotan View
We spent most of the day yesterday within the state of South Dakota. Not that I’m complaining, but I prefer the days where you tend to pass through parts of multiple states – something about reinforcing a sense of accomplishment.
The Badlands were truly awesome, and of course we stopped in at Mt. Rushmore and [...]

But will it play in Peoria?
Yesterday morning we started in Peoria, IL. The night before I was tasked with finding a Catholic Church to attend, and after I realized that Peoria was its own diocese I opted for the cathedral on principle.
To say that the decision was fortuitous would be to vastly understate the situation. [...]

And finally a few pictures from the Bahamas…

Somewhere in Indiana
I’ve been sick the last two days, but fortunately I was fine on the honeymoon cruise. It was pretty cool, and pictures will be forthcoming as soon as possible – possibly even later tonight.
We are on our way to experience what a friend of mine assures me is true Chicago-style pizza. Although I probably [...]