Even Taleb Predicts Sometimes
Posted on February 26th, 2010 by mark in Market Observations
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is known for many things, but mostly he is known for pointing out just how stupid it is to try to predict the future. The future is full of so many unknowns at every level that predictions are just bound to be worthless. And if your prediction happens to come true anyway, Taleb [...]
Ebb and Flow
Posted on February 19th, 2010 by mark in Market Observations
In a surprise move today, the Federal Reserve raised the somewhat low-profile discount rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. Supposedly, they are backing away from “emergency” operations and things are slowly getting back to “normal”. In the great scheme of things, this doesn’t sound like much, but rate cycles are long term events and while we [...]